Betting suggestions for NBA playoffs: Celtics-Bucks, Warriors-Grizzlies Sport 4s

All odds are supplied by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you want to know for the Monday playoff video games

Maintain off on Horford: Al Horford has discovered the fountain of youth this postseason. He tallied 22 factors, 16 rebounds and 5 assists towards the Bucks on Saturday and cashed nearly all of his props. However must you return to the properly? He has averaged 13.9 factors and 9.6 rebounds this postseason, numbers which can be mirrored in his DFS price ticket and prop market. Nevertheless, he’s taking pictures 50% from 3-point vary with nearly all of his photographs coming from deep. That’s spectacular, however not precisely sustainable. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown accounted for 73.8% of the factors from Celtics’ starters and 65.5% of their photographs, following Boston’s first loss within the sequence. That leaves little meat on the bone for Horford, contemplating he has averaged one free throw try each 40 minutes this postseason. His scoring flooring is decrease than the prop markets counsel.

Taking the beneath: There have been 254 factors scored in Sport 3 between the Grizzlies and Warriors. With Gary Payton II sidelined, the Warriors’ defensive effectivity was 3.6% higher than of their first seven video games this postseason. That’s to not counsel that they’re higher with out Payton, however their sport plan was clear: cease everybody not named Ja Morant. The Grizzlies star made 13 of 21 photographs whereas his teammates shot simply 27-of-71 (38%), making it logical to imagine the Warriors make use of an identical technique Monday night time. Whereas Memphis welcomes again Dillon Brooks, relying on quantity from anybody besides Morant is harmful. Golden State ought to be capable of restrict the effectivity of the Grizzlies’ supporting items. Fourteen of Golden State’s 17 finest video games when it comes to defensive effectivity got here in entrance of their house crowd. So you must take the beneath on any of Memphis’ workforce and participant props. — Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe

Breaking down the Monday video games

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
7:30 p.m. ET, Fiserv Discussion board, Milwaukee

Line: Bucks (-1)
Cash line: Bucks (-115), Celtics (-105)
Whole: 212 factors
BPI projected complete: 216 factors
BPI win %: Celtics (59.2%)

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Questionable: None

Dominated out: None
Word: BPI numbers factored in gamers who’re dominated out however assumes questionable gamers will play

Notable: The Celtics lined the closing line Saturday by half some extent and the nail-biting nature is nothing new for Boston. 5 of its previous seven video games have been determined by seven or fewer factors. To that finish, over their previous six video games, the Celtics are 5-1 ATS and unders maintain the identical mark.

Finest guess: Brook Lopez over 17.5 factors + rebounds

The Bucks are dominating inside scoring and had 52 factors within the paint in Sport 3. Lopez had 13 factors and 10 rebounds and has averaged 11 PPG and 6.0 RPG up to now this postseason. We should always see this pattern proceed Monday night time. — Eric Moody

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Finest bets: Celtics ML (-102), Celtics 1Q (+0.5), Jayson Tatum over 3.5 made 3s. I consider the Boston will win outright Monday night time and win the sequence. Giannis Antetokounmpo had an insane sport Saturday after the Celtics’ protection restricted him within the first two video games. Regardless of Antetokounmpo’s efficiency, the Bucks nearly misplaced the sport within the last seconds. The Celtics might be hungry for a victory and are available out sizzling as they did in Sport 2, outscoring Milwaukee 32-21 within the first quarter.

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As for participant props, I’m taking a look at Tatum over 3.5 made 3s. He ought to step up his sport after going 4-for-19 from the sphere and 0-for-6 from 3 in Sport 3. This line could seem excessive, however Tatum went 4-for-9 and 5-for-10 from past the arc within the first two video games respectively. Usually, gamers bounce again after a tough efficiency, particularly superstars like Tatum. — Erin Dolan

Finest guess: Jrue Vacation over 1.5 steals

Vacation has averaged 1.5 SPG through the playoffs. The Celtics solely dedicated 12 turnovers in Sport 3, however Vacation recorded three steals. — Moody

Finest guess: Below 212.0 factors

This sequence has been a defensive slugfest. Each the Celtics and Bucks have averaged 196.3 mixed factors over the previous three video games, with no sport greater than 204 factors. There’s nothing to counsel that sample is about to alter. Each groups are among the many most bodily, defensive-minded teams within the league and the stress simply retains ratcheting up on each side. I count on one other shut defensive battle in Sport 4 with a low rating. — Andre Snellings

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
10:00 p.m. ET, Chase Heart, San Francisco

Line: Warriors (-10)
Cash line: Warriors (-550), Grizzlies (+400)
Whole: 223.5 factors
BPI projected complete: 225.6 factors
BPI win %: Warriors (60.8%)

Questionable: None

Dominated out: Ja Morant
Word: BPI numbers factored in gamers who’re dominated out however assumes questionable gamers will play

Notable: Sport 3 on Saturday flew over the 225.5 complete with 254 factors, however watch out in assuming we see one thing like that once more tonight. The subsequent time consecutive Memphis video games go over the overall this postseason would be the first, with unders an ideal 3-0 following Grizz overs (going beneath by a median of 17.3 factors).

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Finest guess: Stephen Curry over 33.5 factors + assists

Curry has averaged 27.6 PPG and 5.6 APG up to now this postseason. He had his forty fourth profession 30-point sport in Sport 3, tied for the third-most amongst energetic gamers. With Ja Morant anticipated to overlook Sport 4, Curry ought to ship a spectacular efficiency. — Moody

Finest guess: Andrew Wiggins over 23.5 factors + assists + rebounds

Wiggins had certainly one of his finest performances with the Warriors in Sport 3. His shot choice and protection had been wonderful and he has averaged 16.7 PPG, 1.3 APG and 6.7 RPG- on this sequence. Wiggins ought to surpass these averages in Sport 4 with the extent of confidence he’s taking part in with proper now. — Moody

Finest guess: Draymond Inexperienced over 7.5 assists

Inexperienced had a game-high eight assists in Sport 3 and he’ll probably be a distributor once more for the Warriors’ plethora of shooters. Inexperienced has averaged 7.0 APG within the playoffs. — Moody

Finest guess: Below 224.5 factors

The Grizzlies carried out shockingly properly with out Morant through the common season, successful 20 of the primary 22 video games Morant missed. The system included taking part in stronger protection to assist make up for his or her poorer offensive execution. Each of those patterns counsel Sport 4 ought to be lower-scoring. — Snellings

Finest guess: Dillon Brooks over 17.5 factors. Brooks returns from an almost two-game absence Monday night time, and with Morant probably out he ought to change into a focus of the Grizzlies’ offense. Brooks averaged 19.8 PPG with out Morant from Nov. 26 to Dec 19. After which averaged 20.9 PPG when Morant was absent once more from March 20 by way of April 9. Brooks might be in for an incredible scoring night time. — Snellings