Betting ideas for NBA playoffs: Celtics-Bucks, Grizzlies-Warriors recreation 3s

All odds are supplied by Caesars Sportsbook.

Table of Contents

What it’s essential know for Saturday’s playoff video games

Placing The A In Jaylen: Boston’s offense is paced by their dynamic duo and their means to place the ball within the bucket. However … that’s not precisely the place the worth lies in tonight’s pivotal Recreation 3. It’s no secret that the Bucks make use of a “beat us from deep in case you can” defensive recreation plan and that hasn’t modified by way of two video games on this collection. Throughout the common season, Jaylen Brown averaged one help each 7.6 minutes in video games the place the Celtics chuck up not less than 45 threes, up from one each 10.3 minutes wherein they don’t. Boston is averaging 46.5 triples per recreation to this point on this collection, and if that continues, Brown ought to cruise previous his help complete in his playoff function that has him enjoying over 40 minutes an evening.

Counting Curry: In Recreation 1, Stephen Curry took 60% of his pictures from distance and pulled down three rebounds. In Recreation 2, 44% of his pictures got here from 3, and he recorded 9 boards. What modified? Gary Payton II performed 23 minutes in Recreation 1 and was injured simply three minutes into Recreation 2. Little Glove pulled down seven rebounds in Recreation 1 and didn’t try a 3: In brief, he dealt with a lot of contained in the arc lifting for this backcourt. In every of his previous three postseason appearances, Curry has averaged extra rebounds throughout the playoffs than he did throughout the common season, and he trended that path within the snapshot we obtained Tuesday night time with Payton out. He averaged 5.2 rebounds this common season, so penciling him in for not less than six tonight is a powerful numbers play within the props market.

Brook’s Blocks: The Milwaukee Bucks have relied on Brook Lopez to guard the paint this postseason. With three blocks in every of the staff’s two video games in opposition to Boston, Lopez is permitting the Celtics to shoot simply 45% inside six ft of the basket on practically six pictures defended within the paint per recreation. With practically even odds on a block prop of 1.5 on DraftKings for right this moment’s tilt with Boston, Lopez is in a great place to swat a number of pictures in a pivotal Recreation 3.

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— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe

Breaking down right this moment’s video games

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
3:30 p.m ET, Fiserv Discussion board, Milwaukee, WI

Line: Bucks (-1.5)
Cash line: Celtics (+105), Bucks (-125)
Complete: 213 factors
BPI Projected Complete: 220.2
BPI Win%: Celtics 53.1%

Questionable: Marcus Good (thigh), George Hill (stomach)

Dominated Out: Khris Middleton (knee)
Observe: BPI numbers factored in gamers who’re dominated out however assumes questionable gamers will play

Notable: Prolonged time between video games is good, till it’s not. For the reason that starting of final season, the Bucks are simply 4-7 ATS when having greater than two days between video games (1-5 ATS of their previous six such video games at residence).

1 Associated

Greatest wager: Brook Lopez over 5.5 rebounds. Throughout the collection, Lopez has been hit and miss. Regardless of that, he averages 8.0 RPG and is making an impression on the glass. The development ought to proceed because the collection continues in Milwaukee. In Recreation 3, will probably be fascinating to see how Lopez contributes offensively. — Eric Moody

Greatest wager: Robert Williams III over 14.5 factors+rebounds. To this point on this collection, Williams has averaged 8.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG in 23.5 MPG as he continues to return to type following a torn meniscus. Williams averaged 10 PPG and 9.6 RPG throughout the common season. He ought to proceed to see extra enjoying time. — Moody

Greatest wager: Jayson Tatum over 42.5 factors+assists+rebounds. With Jaylen Brown going off in Recreation 2, Tatum obtained off to a gradual begin, however the pendulum might swing again to Tatum with Brown coping with a proper hamstring damage forward of Recreation 3. Nonetheless, he has nonetheless averaged 25 PPG, 7.0 APG and 4.5 RPG on this collection. — Moody

Greatest wager: Lopez over over 5.5 rebounds. I’ve been on “Lopez over” rebounds for the previous couple of video games, and he’s gone over every time. However, the road had been set at 4.5…he’s gone over 4.5 boards in six of the seven playoffs video games. Now, the road is as much as 5.5 boards…however he’s nonetheless been over the 5.5 line in each video games in opposition to the Celtics to this point. The Celtics have a large enough frontline that Lopez ought to get loads of minutes, barring the foul bother he had final recreation. And, he will get to rebound in opposition to a frontline that’s spending most of their power targeted on stopping Giannis. He’s averaged 8.0 RPG within the collection. — André Snellings

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
8:30 p.m ET, Chase Heart, San Francisco, CA

Line: Warriors (-7)
Cash line: Grizzlies (+240), Warriors (-300)
Complete: 225.5 factors
BPI Projected Complete: 224.6
BPI Win%: Warriors 55.4%

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Dominated Out: Andre Iguodola (neck), Gary Payton II (elbow), Dillon Brooks (suspended)
Observe: BPI numbers factored in gamers who’re dominated out however assumes questionable gamers will play

Notable: Suppose the factors pile up tonight in Golden State? The Warriors have coated every of their previous 4 residence video games that went over the entire.

Greatest wager: Ja Morant over 44.5 factors+assists+rebounds. The unlucky damage suffered by Gary Payton II after he was fouled arduous by Dillon Brooks advantages Morant. Instantly following his damage, Morant’s efficiency modified. He completed with a playoff profession excessive 47 factors, eight assists and eight rebounds. The Warriors can have a tough time slowing him down. — Moody

Greatest wager: Klay Thompson over 21.5 factors. Thompson is just not taking pictures the basketball nicely in the intervening time. With a 29% subject aim proportion, he averages 13.5 PPG. The Warriors want extra from him to defeat the Grizzlies and take strain off Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole. Thompson ought to carry out nicely at residence. Throughout his profession, he has averaged 19.4 PPG at residence within the playoffs. — Moody

Greatest wager: Stephen Curry over 33.5 factors+assists. Curry has averaged 25.5 PPG and 6.0 APG whereas taking pictures 42.2% from the sector up to now in opposition to the Grizzlies. The Warriors haven’t shot notably nicely from past the arc to this point within the collection. Hopefully, that modifications tonight. Over the past ten seasons, the Warriors have made 37.3% of their triples at residence within the playoffs. — Moody

Greatest wager: Desmond Bane over 17.5 factors. This decide depends on the additional relaxation between Video games 2 and three having been a profit to Bane’s well being. Bane entered the collection having averaged 27.0 PPG (51.4 FG%, 52.3 3P%) in his earlier 4 outings, however he struggled within the first two video games to the tune of seven.0 PPG (29.4 FG%, 22.2 3P%). It was reported after Recreation 1 that Bane was battling a sore again, and to me it appears clear that’s what’s induced his manufacturing dropoff. However, with the additional days of relaxation, I’m pondering Bane has had a while maybe get a bit more healthy. Plus, with Dillon Brooks suspended, the Grizzlies will want Bane’s perimeter manufacturing. — Snellings

Greatest wager: Klay Thompson over 3.5 3-pointers. As Moody alluded to, Thompson has struggled along with his shot to this point within the collection. I consider that he, like Bane, will profit from the additional day off as he appeared a bit worn down. With the sport additionally returning to the Warriors’ residence courtroom, the circumstances appear ripe for Thompson to get again to his regular taking pictures stroke. — Snellings

Greatest wager: Ja Morant underneath 44.5 factors+assists+rebounds. It’s arduous to fade a famous person like Morant, particularly after he simply posted a profession excessive 47 factors within the Grizzlies’ Recreation 2 win over the Warriors. Morant has been sensational and deserves all of the credit score, however with that stated all good issues should come to an finish. And by “finish” I imply slight decline in manufacturing. Morant hit underneath this quantity in three common season matchups, together with two video games on the street. He’s been so elite that I’m not certain he’ll have the ability to maintain this manufacturing. – Erin Kate Dolan

Analytics edgeBPI highest projected totals

1. Boston Celtics (110.7)
2. Golden State Warriors (106.5)
3. Milwaukee Bucks (106.2)

See also Brown to retire after 18 seasons with KingsBPI lowest projected totals

1. Boston Celtics (105.4)
2. Milwaukee Bucks (106.5)
3. Golden State Warriors (106.5)

BPI prime chance to win (straight up)

1. Boston Celtics (53.1%)
2. Golden State Warriors (55.4%)